04/23/2024 #MarketCycles #It’sDifferentThisTime

Posted on April 23, 2024 by Tom & Dee Cryer

Spring has sprung!

Dee and I have thrived through many market cycles. Love your house, but date your rate! Truer words have never been spoken. If you buy a house that becomes your home, you will love it. Over time, the market will change. Values will increase, and values will decline. Rates will increase, and rates will decline. Owning a home you love, however, is the only tax-incentivized event you most likely will ever enjoy. Let’s focus on a home you can love. The rate thing will work itself out.

I have observations this time around making me think it is different. This time, builders are not in an oversupply condition. Institutional buyers of residential properties continue to buy. Rates are nothing like what they were in the ’80s. This is keeping inventory in check, buyers of strong economic circumstances can still afford to be buyers, and sellers who have waited long enough are creeping back into the market giving those buyers some choices. Will it be a soft landing? This truly is the $64K question. Only time will tell, but right now, it is different this time.

What happened in the Denver Market this week?

Denver Market Watch

New Listing
848 Not much happening here!
Coming Soon
187
Back On Market
162
Price Increase
74
Price Decreases
801 We still can’t get the original list price right!
Pending
951 Not a bad week, considering the lack of new supply.
Withdrawn
82
Leased
0
Closed
739 This is a very slow week. the spring marketing season has not sprung…
Expired
125

OK, what does this mean for our Total Active Listings?

With $,577 Active Listings in January, 4,940 in February, and finally, 4,960 at the end of March, we are tracking well within the limits of a market of short supply in the neighborhoods of demand. Communities with active new construction will face builder competition with incentivized transactions. Closing Costs, Buy-Downs, and Free Upgrades are just a few of the builder’s tricks.

So, we have flowers in bloom, rain in the forecast, and generally strong economic indicators in our marketplace. Denver will do better than just survive during this period of uncertainty. This does not mean it will be easy to understand, but we are here for you every step of the way!

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04/16/2024 #Be Brief and Be Seated

Posted on April 16, 2024 by Tom & Dee Cryer

More than once in my life, I heard my father echo those words. My Business Communications Professor at DU was always reinforcing the Three ‘C’s’. Be Clear, Concise, and Cogent. In honor of those two memorable mentors, this week’s news letter will be all of that and more.

In honor of Earth’s most recent “conflict”. What is it good for?

Too much!

Denver’s Market Watch

New Listing
812 LOW!
Coming Soon
200
Back On Market
140
Price Increase
65
Price Decrease
728 STILL HIGH!
Pending
1031 NOT A BAD WEEK, BUT NOTHING SPECIAL!
Withdrawn
79
Leased
0
Closed
649 THIS IS A VERY SLOW WEEK!
Expired
99

When I look at the numbers above, I see a total malaise when compared to a “normal” spring marketing season. With the 2-year approaching 5%, the outlook for lower rates does not look good.

Denver Metro’s Total Active Listing Count

With 4,840 Active Listings, this is down from last month, but up over January. With rates as high as they are, we will continue potential sellers waiting it out. “Why should we sell when we have a 3% mortgage.” This mindset is not going away anytime soon. This will keep inventory relatively low.

Let’s keep our minds open. Get good advice. Remember, TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com is there for you every step of the way…tc

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04/09/2024 #Catharsis

Posted on April 9, 2024 by Tom & Dee Cryer

I’ve never written about this before. I do not know why. It is an essential concept. We’ve observed Buyers and Sellers wrestle through this process many times. Let’s talk about it today.

When a buyer arrives in Denver, there are preconceived notions already riding heavily on their shoulders. They have every memory of “home” that they have ever experienced. I liked this, I hated that. And, so it goes. Until that buyer can work through the Catharsis of the process, it is almost impossible for them to accept a new home. Every market is different. A buyer has to learn, that giving up is receiving something new.

On the other hand, the Seller comes into the process with their own preconceived notions. The seller has read about how great/bad/etc. the market is. Their coworkers have told them to do this, do that, and not listen to him or her. In the long run, the market does not lie. The market is smart, educated, and visible. Until the seller can release and accept the catharsis of the process, it is tough for the process to move forward. the long story short for both the Buyer and Seller is “no pain, no gain”.

Now, let’s take a look at the Denver Residential Market over the last 7 days.

Denver Market Watch

New Listing
924 We still have no discernable observation of Sellers running into this market.
Coming Soon
232 This number is actually down from last week’s number in the 350 range.
Back On Market
156
Price Increase
64
Price Decrease
691 This is a good sign, this number is off by 50% from last week.
Pending
937 Not a great week here, but still an OK week.
Withdrawn
62
Leased
0
Closed
612 This is well off the mark of the last few weeks.
Expired 62

There has been a dramatic change in our MLS reporting portal. I needed to recreate my standard weekly search. Hopefully, my new search parameters will match well with what we’ve been doing here for years. We are still including the 11 counties within and surrounding Denver Metro. As always, we will keep you posted…

Below is the same chart reflecting a 10-year pattern of Active Listing activity. We should notice no changed here, but again, we will keep you posted.

Bouncing between 4,500 and 4,850 active listings over the last couple of months there is no sign of oversupply on the horizon. This market makes no sense, but we will keep an eye on it for you. Check back with us next week.

I follow Wall Street pretty closely, and I follow Denver Real Estate even closer. I also follow the world of politics. I’m predicting it here and now. This year’s election will be like none other. It will set a record for money spent. Things will be done and said that are so hurtful, it will be like the post-Civil War years. “Keep your tray table in its upright position”. This is going to be a rough flight!

Every Day, Week, Month, and Year, Dee and I work diligently to keep in contact with past customers and clients. If we’ve lost contact with you, please help us out. Send us your new number, new email address, or even your new home address. We won’t hold a grudge. We’ll be here for you every step of the way…

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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04/05/2024 News!!

Posted on April 5, 2024 by Tom & Dee Cryer

Exciting news from Centennial!

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April 5, 2024

Contact: Allison Wittern, 303-754-3443

Centennial Neighborhood

Centennial Earns #6 Ranking in Stacker’s Best Suburbs to Live in Colorado List, Recognizing Exceptional Quality of Life

Exciting news from Centennial! We’re thrilled to share that our City has been ranked #6 in Stacker’s “Best Suburbs to Live in Colorado” list. This achievement underscores Centennial’s commitment to providing residents with an exceptional quality of life.

Stacker, drawing upon data from Niche’s 2024 Best Places to Live, meticulously evaluated numerous factors such as cost of living, educational attainment, housing affordability, and school quality to compile this prestigious list. Centennial’s impressive ranking serves as a testament to its allure as a highly sought-after suburban destination. Explore more about Stacker’s list.

“Seeing Centennial recognized in the top 10, despite its significantly larger population compared to other cities, fills me with immense pride. Centennial is an inclusive community with enduring built environments, memorable places, and experiences that bring people together. It is these qualities that have placed us on this esteemed list, and for that, we extend our gratitude to our residents, businesses, and partners for making Centennial such a remarkable place to live,” says Centennial Mayor Stephanie Piko.

With unwavering dedication to community well-being, educational excellence, and accessible housing options, Centennial continues to distinguish itself among Colorado’s premier suburban locales. This recognition underlines the City’s ongoing efforts to cultivate a thriving and vibrant community for its residents.


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04/02/2024 #TacoTuesday

Posted on April 1, 2024 by Tom & Dee Cryer

Economic Catastrophe, Caitlin Clark, New Normal, and April Fools were words and a name we read repeatedly this week.

Will the Baltimore Bridge really be an economic catastrophe?

Will Caitlin Clark raise ticket prices in the WNBA?

Are interest rates at a new normal?

I didn’t get taken by a single April Fools prank yesterday!

I guess the segway here is simple. We really have no control over what’s going to get us next.

So let’s take a look at Denver’s Residential Market this week…

Denver Market Watch

New Listing
988 I know it was Easter, but this number is too low! Where are the sellers? It’s spring…
Coming Soon
397 This is up a good bit, so maybe more next week?
Back On Market
224
Price Increase
110
Price Decrease
919 Crazy how we can’t get this right. As high as I’ve seen it!
Pending
1176 Not a bad week, but this should still be over 1,200…
Withdrawn
131
Leased
73
Closed
1266 A really good week, so Buyers and Sellers are finding their way…
Expired
473 This is a pretty big “give up” number.

Let’s move on to the Total Active Listing Inventory in the Metro Area.

After 4 consecutive weeks of an upward trend in Total Active Listings, we experienced a decline to 4,510. This is 200 total listings less than last week. We seem to be at a market equilibrium. In other words a delicate balance between inventory increasing and transactions increasing and visa versa.

We will have to wait this one out. There is no telling. I was listening to a few interest rate pundits this morning. Everyone contradicts the next. Wait for it. I believe we will have long-term rates close to 6% by the end of the year. I don’t see it happening if you are waiting for a bigger drop. On the equation’s inventory side, its scarcity keeps price levels strong. Don’t be looking for price reductions while you wait for rate declines. It’s not going to happen this year.

Today, I’d like to tell you about how we keep our Sellers informed each week. After I put this post together each Tuesday, I have the knowledge to provide our Sellers with an Anecdotal Feedback Report from our showings over the last week, and I can put together a Statistical Analysis from all the data we’ve collected giving the Seller an idea of how their listing is performing compared to historical data from past listings. These two reports are very telling and can greatly enhance the Seller’s confidence when it comes to an appropriate pricing strategy.

We never stop walking you through the process every step of the way!

And, Dee never stops riding for the brand!

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03/26/2024 One Week Left in March… and the Easter Bunny has already been here!

Posted on March 26, 2024 by Tom & Dee Cryer

It’s unbelievable how quickly 2024 has flown by. We are busy with all kinds of client needs. It’s different this time, but it’s not. Rates have hamstrung this market to where Buyers and Sellers have paralysis. Don’t want to sell; rates are too high. Don’t want to buy; rates are too high. I’m here to argue with these hypotheses.

This happened in the 1980s even to a greater extent. With about 4,737 Active Listings available in the Metro Denver Market, supply is up just a bit. A perfect time for buyers to jump in, and a perfect time for sellers to be actively shopping. Rates are rates, don’t let them dictate to you, go out and find a path to dictate to them! Also, it is an election year. Everyone will be trying to “sweeten the pie”. Let’s take advantage of all the great pie heading our way!

This is what the last 7 days have shown us. I will be commenting next to each Listing category. This is how a spring marketing season shapes up. It’s a good market.

Denver Market Watch

New Listing
1234 This number looks good to me. Over 1,200 will put some supply on the street.
Coming Soon
166 A little lower than last week.
Back On Market
212
Price Increase
119
Price Decrease
1051 We just can’t get this one right. Why not?
Pending
1304 A nice strong number here. This is keeping our supply down!
Withdrawn
138
Leased
59
Closed
1094 A good number. Remember last week under 1,000. Let’s keep it going!
Expired
187

There are clearly Buyers and Sellers taking advantage of this market. The market finds a way…

Now, let’s jump down to the Total Listing Count in Denver’s 11 surrounding counties. This week’s number is up just under 100 Active Listings. As we are moving into the spring season, this is not enough to get Buyers on the street.

We believe every Client should feel confident buying or selling their home. This is why it is so important to follow along here weekly with our Posts, and it is also important to open our monthly email with additional news, features, and market data. Your home is most likely, your largest asset. Let’s play this game together. We’ll be there with you every step of the way.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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03/19/2023 #ElectionYear

Posted on March 19, 2024 by Tom & Dee Cryer

Good Morning Everyone!

Rates, Supply, and Demand will dominate our residential market discussion for 2024 into 2025. I write this without question. The Election Year disruption will be a dominant twist thrown into the equation, and I write this without question. There will be a lot of turbulence. Keep your tray tables upright, and please keep your seatbelts fastened!

With all this being said, let’s dive straight to the deep end and see what’s new this week. Over the last 7 days, (Tuesday to Tuesday) these are the stats in the Denver Residential Market.

Denver Market Watch

New Listing
1127 Under a total listing count of 1,200 is not exciting.
Coming Soon
264 Slightly above, but not significant.
Back On Market
210
Price Increase
159
Price Decrease
891 This issue with constant price reductions is haunting!
Pending
1210 Not a bad number here, but this is the first day of spring. What’s happening?
Withdrawn
114
Leased
70
Closed
959 Under 1,000 makes me question the validity of this market. We are building supply!
Expired
173

What does it look like graphically for the total Active Listing count in our market?

Let’s put this chart in perspective. The chart shows 4,651 Active Listings today. Last week, it showed 4,529, but last July it showed 7,435. The shock and awe of RATES will continue to be impactful. How impactful in 2024 during this period of 7% rates and an Election Year; nobody knows. My best guess is relative stability concerning price, but slower than normal absorption. This could lead to more supply, however, adversely affecting price. Only time will tell.

A lot is going on another front. The Realtor’s legal battle needs further explanation. To speculate on the outcome is too soon right now. I would say, the changes will be perceptible, but not earthshaking. We will keep you posted.

In closing, it has always been tough being a Realtor. Most people don’t know, but we are 1099 workers. We receive no benefits from our Employing Brokers. No Health Insurance, No Expense Reimbursement, No Retirement Plans, no W-2 type benefits of any kind. Every time this business has been run as a W-2 Employee plan it has failed. Without the incentive of multiplying our time, Realtors have quit or returned to the 1099 model. Let’s see what happens after the Antitrust case is settled.

As always, we’ll keep you in the loop. Don’t hesitate to reach out to us. TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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03/12/2024 #CanYouFeelIt? #PentUp #Anger

Posted on March 12, 2024 by Tom & Dee Cryer

Can you feel it? There is almost no portion of this modern lifestyle in which we roam where anger does not reside. In fact, there is pent-up anger waiting for a trigger. This is not good for anyone, anywhere, anyhow. Am I right? So let’s ease into today’s post and let’s see where it takes us. Let’s not keep our heads in the snow or opt for sand.

This week, we are finally seeing the spring marketing season obtaining some traction and real supply in the marketplace, but closings are down. Suspense is real. Please read the comments below.

Market Watch

New Listing
1271 This is real progress for buyers. Growing inventory…
Coming Soon
216 No significance today…
Back On Market
250 This is always a sad day for sellers…
Price Increase
136
Price Decrease
861 Significant improvement with this number is needed!
Pending
1298 It’s always a good week when Pendings exceed 1,200!!!
Withdrawn
136
Leased
74
Closed
838 Sorry folks, this is not a good sign. Well below 1,000 is a sign of weakness.
Expired
185 No significance to discuss here.

As far as our Total Active Listings are concerned, we have ratcheted up a good bit in the last month. It will be my job to watch this, but today we stand at 4,529 in Total Active Listings. This has been growing every week over the last month. Now, with Closings down, it can only go higher. Supply always impacts the marketplace. I’m guessing right now, we will see more of this trend until rates subside.

Total Active Listings as of today from all 11 counties making up the Greater Metro Denver Market Area.

As we watch this Market unfold completely into the spring and summer marketing seasons, there will be much to report back to you. Stay tuned…tc

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03/08/2024 #FebruaryStats

Posted on March 8, 2024 by Tom & Dee Cryer

Here’s an end the week look at February’s numbers.

Third Party February Stats

This source reviews only 7 counties as we typically include 11 counties…

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03/05/2024 #ChoosingSides #Agreed #Volunteerism

Posted on March 5, 2024 by Tom & Dee Cryer

Hello Readers!

Before we get to the Denver Market Watch, let’s talk about #ChoosingSides. Over the next few months, Americans who have chosen sides will be busy moving you to their side. Let’s be kind, listen, and be true to our beliefs, hearts, or what’s best for our families. We don’t have to participate in The Divide!

Along the same line, believe it or not, Americans #Agree on #Homeownership. Regardless of party, the numbers do not lie. Both party’s affiliates enjoy an equal desire to be homeowners. This should not be surprising, with capital accumulation, tax advantages, and security, homeownership leads the list of all possible choices for agreement in the United States.

Finally, I am a cheerleader for community volunteerism. Take the lead, participate in your HOA, go to your town or county and make a difference, deliver meals for Meals on Wheels, or whatever it is, “Just do it!”

Today, let’s take a look at the last 7 days in the 11 counties making up the Denver Market.

Denver Market Watch

New Listing
1252 My Goodness, this is good news for buyers!
Coming Soon
262 No real increase here, but a solid number like last week.
Back On Market
231
Price Increase
241
Price Decrease
1009 This is ridiculous. Let’s stop over pricing!
Pending
1258 Strong number here!
Withdrawn
110
Leased
87
Closed
1301 This is the best number of 2024.
Expired
380

This clearly gives us a current look at things, but what does the history of Active Listings look like? Below is our chart of Active Listings over the last 10 years.

With 4,344 Active Listings on the market, this is in the typical range of expected activity based on the last 10 years of data. I we were to remove 2021 and 2022, the graph would list happily across the page.

Let’s not forget, that learning the market habits of a neighborhood can easily be accomplished in a couple of months. Learning the intricacies of a real estate transaction is a cumulative process obtained over years. A seasoned professional can be worth their weight in gold when things go south.

We’ll be there for you every step of the way…tc

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